WARNING: This is the page for the old seat. The new seats, which will be used at the next general election, are more relevant. See the new seat of Isle of Wight East, or click here to find another new seat.
| MP at 2019: | Bob Seely (CON) |
| County/Area: | Hampshire (South East) |
| Electorate: | 113,021 |
| Turnout: | 65.9% |
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Share | Pred Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 41,815 | 56.2% | 28.8% |
| LAB | 18,078 | 24.3% | 35.7% |
| Green | 11,338 | 15.2% | 10.4% |
| OTH | 3,211 | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| LIB | 0 | 0.0% | 7.8% |
| Reform | 0 | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| CON Majority | 23,737 | 31.9% | 6.9% Pred Maj |
| Chance of winning | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| CON |
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| LAB |
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| Green |
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| OTH |
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| LIB |
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| Reform |
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The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Isle of Wight constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.
The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).
The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.
| Indicator | Seat | South East | All GB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Party Winner 2019 | CON | CON | CON |
| Party Winner 2017 | CON | CON | CON |
| Party Winner 2015 | CON | CON | CON |
| Economic Position | 2° Right | 11° Right | 0° |
| National Position | 12° Nat | 3° Nat | 0° |
| Social Position | 3° Con | 1° Con | 0° |
| Tribe | Centrists | ||
| EU Leave % | 62% | 52% | 52% |
| Average Age | 55.4 | 50.4 | 49.5 |
| Good Education | 45% | 53% | 49% |
| Employed | 48% | 59% | 58% |
| Homeowner | 70% | 68% | 63% |
| Car owner | 80% | 84% | 77% |
| Married | 46% | 48% | 45% |
| Ethnic White | 97% | 86% | 83% |
| Christian | 51% | 50% | 50% |
| ABC1 Class | 50% | 62% | 56% |
| Gross Household Income | £38,844 | £50,167 | £42,397 |
| Deprivation | 56% | 48% | 52% |
| Average House Price | £267,761 | £409,816 | £313,528 |
Isle of Wight ranks #118 for "Leave", #318 for "Economic Right Position", #108 for "National Position" and #260 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 seats.
The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.
| Topic | Cat 1 | Cat 2 | Cat 3 | Cat 4 | Cat 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Position | Very Left | Left | Centrist | Right | Very Right |
| National Position | Very Global | Global | Centrist | National | Very Nat |
| Social Position | Very Lib | Liberal | Moderate | Conservative | Very Cons |
| EU Leave % | Very Remain | Remain | Balanced | Leave | Very Leave |
| Census | Very Low | Low | Medium | High | Very High |
Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:
| Indicator | Census Question | Definition / Included Census Categories |
|---|---|---|
| Party Winner | – | Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus |
| Economic Position | – | Economic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data. |
| National Position | – | National position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data. |
| Social Position | – | Social position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data. |
| Tribe | – | Tribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details. |
| EU Leave % | – | EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate |
| Average Age | Age (TS007A) | Average age of adults (18 years and above) |
| Good Education | Highest level of qualification (TS067) | Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent) |
| Employed | Economic activity status (TS066) | Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed |
| Homeowner | Tenure (TS054) | Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership |
| Car owner | Car or van availability (TS045) | In a household with at least one car or van |
| Married | Legal partnership status (TS002) | Married or civil partnership |
| Ethnic White | Ethnic group (TS021) | White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other |
| Christian | Religion (TS030) | Christian or Christian denomination (NI) |
| ABC1 Class | Approximated Social Grade (SG002) | Approximated social grades A, B and C1 |
| Gross Household Income | – | Median gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling. |
| Deprivation | Households by deprivation dimensions (TS011) | Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating). |
| Average House Price | – | Average residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance |
This table shows the predicted future general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Isle of Wight.
| Isle of Wight | Actual | Predicted | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Ward | Electorate 2019 | GE19 Winner | Pred Winner | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Bembridge | 3,261 | CON | CON | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Binstead and Fishbourne | 2,943 | CON | CON | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Brading and St Helens | 2,844 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Brighstone, Calbourne and Shalfleet | 2,644 | CON | CON | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Carisbrooke and Gunville | 2,796 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Central Rural | 2,915 | CON | CON | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Chale, Niton and Shorwell | 2,981 | CON | CON | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Cowes Medina | 3,118 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Cowes North | 2,842 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Cowes South and Northwood | 2,948 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Cowes West and Gurnard | 2,937 | CON | CON | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | East Cowes | 3,191 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Fairlee and Whippingham | 3,008 | CON | CON | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Freshwater North and Yarmouth | 2,651 | CON | CON | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Freshwater South | 3,169 | CON | CON | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Haylands and Swanmore | 2,732 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Lake North | 2,891 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Lake South | 2,960 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Mountjoy and Shide | 2,784 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Nettlestone and Seaview | 2,485 | CON | CON | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Newchurch, Havenstreet and Ashey | 2,938 | CON | CON | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Newport Central | 2,737 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Newport West | 2,940 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Osborne | 3,165 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Pan and Barton | 2,755 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Parkhurst and Hunnyhill | 2,791 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Ryde Appley and Elmfield | 3,060 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Ryde Monktonmead | 3,092 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Ryde North West | 3,107 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Ryde South East | 1,755 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Ryde West | 2,740 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Sandown North | 2,691 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Sandown South | 2,903 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Shanklin Central | 2,957 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Shanklin South | 3,004 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Totland and Colwell | 3,183 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Ventnor and St Lawrence | 3,062 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Wootton Bridge | 2,883 | CON | CON | ||||||||
| Isle of Wight | Wroxall, Lowtherville and Bonchurch | 3,162 | CON | LAB | ||||||||
| Total | 113,025 | CON | LAB | |||||||||
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2023.
© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (14-Mar-2024 12:19, Py3L, sc4407)
